A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
